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Airfare could become cheaper due to people slimming down, a new theory suggests.
Analysts at Jeffries are predicting that the expanded use of GLP-1 obesity drugs may reduce fuel consumption, which could translate into lower costs for airplane tickets, as Fox Business has reported.
The Wall Street firm suggested that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lead to about a 2% savings in aircraft weight, 1.5% lower fuel costs and a 4% boost to earnings per share.
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« A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption, » Jeffries reportedly wrote in a note to clients. « Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock. »
These predictions come as weight-loss drug options are growing and the first GLP-1 pill has hit the market, making the medication more accessible.
Jeffries predicts that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lower flight costs. (iStock)
Gary Leff, a Texas-based travel industry expert and author of the blog « View From the Wing, » elaborated on this prediction in an interview with Fox News Digital.
« The heavier something is, the more fuel it burns, » he said. « If passengers weigh less, planes require less fuel to fly. If everyone went to the bathroom before they flew, they’d weigh less and burn less fuel, too. »
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« So, if average passenger weight declines, then flying the same plane on the same route will cost the airline less to operate, » he went on. « And in the most contestable markets, that will bring down fares, too, as airlines compete for passengers. »
Leff suggested that this won’t be true in all markets. Where the « supply of flights is constrained, » like in major cities, these lower costs are more likely to benefit the airlines than the passengers, as « costs fall, but fares do not. »
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From a clinical perspective, Dr. Krishna Vyas, a plastic surgeon in New York City, noted that under current conditions, the use of GLP-1 medications is « too limited, too uneven and too short-lived to meaningfully lower average passenger weight at a population level. »
GLP-1 drug use is « too limited » to « meaningfully lower » average passenger weight at a population level, according to an expert. (iStock)
« Most patients discontinue therapy within one to two years, and weight regain after stopping treatment is common, making durable, large-scale reductions in passenger mass unlikely, » he told Fox News Digital. « Even if modest fuel savings were realized, there is no evidence they would translate into lower ticket prices. »
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« GLP-1 medications represent a significant medical advance for individual cardiometabolic health, but extending their benefits to speculative effects on airline economics goes beyond what current clinical and population data support, » Vyas continued.
« Until broader access, durable adherence and sustained population-level outcomes are demonstrated, cheaper airfare should be viewed as a theoretical possibility — not a predictable consequence — of weight-loss drug use. »
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Dr. Peter Balazs, a hormone and weight loss specialist in New York and New Jersey, discussed how GLP-1s could potentially impact the in-flight experience.
« Patients on GLP-1s experience reduced cravings for carbohydrates and a heightened preference for protein and fats, » he said. « Airlines may need to reconsider in-flight menus to cater to this growing demographic, offering more high-protein, low-carb options. »
« Airlines may need to reconsider in-flight menus to cater to this growing demographic, offering more high-protein, low-carb options. » (iStock)
Balazs noted that weight-loss medications can lead to gastrointestinal side effects, including GERD, dyspepsia, nausea and vomiting.
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« From a medical standpoint, I would suggest loading up on antiemetics (medications that prevent or relieve nausea and vomiting), » Balazs shared as advice to the airlines. « Furthermore, I would counsel patients not to initiate therapy or administer a first dose shortly before a flight to avoid severe side effects at altitude. »
