Property websites expect a repeat of last year when Boxing Day saw a record number of new sellers launching to the market. The prediction come against the background of a stampede to beat hikes in stamp duty which means the number of sales being agreed is already up by 22 percent on this time last year.
At the same time, evidence from Rightmove shows that new buyer demand is up by 13 percent on a year ago.
Rightmove said that average asking prices in December ended up by 1.4 percent on a year ago, but it is expecting a higher 4 percent rise through 2025 on the back of falls in mortgage rates that will make property more affordable.
It said: « Boxing Day 2023 saw a record number of new sellers launching to the market for that time of year, providing fresh property choice for buyers, while buyer demand jumped by 273 percent between the Christmas Day lull and Boxing Day. »
It said the end of the stamp duty holiday on March 31, which will add thousands of pounds to the cost of a home purchase, is fuelling a race to complete purchases ahead of that deadline.
Rightmove said: « Activity continues to remain strong compared to last year. This is laying the groundwork for a potentially busy Boxing Day bounce in home-mover activity, which has become a tradition in recent years as early-bird buyers and sellers flood onto Rightmove and get their 2025 move started.
« If this year is anything like recent years, those early birds who get their search started the day after the festivities are over are likely to be rewarded with plenty of fresh property choice to consider.
« There are signs that those who are most likely to face higher stamp duty charges are trying to act fast to avoid them, despite now being very much up against the clock.
« Rightmove predicts that new seller asking prices will rise by a further 4 percent overall in 2025, aided by anticipated mortgage rate falls, which would help to stimulate activity. »
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s Director of Property Science, said: « Sellers of smaller properties in higher-priced areas are trying to trade up or just sell before the deadline to avoid the higher stamp duty charges, despite now needing to act very quickly.
« In the last four weeks, the number of sellers of typical first-time buyer homes with two bedrooms or fewer in London coming to market is up by 20 percent, the most of any regional market sector.
« In second place is the South East at +16 percent, which is also the second most expensive region. »
He added: « While there are positive signs for the 2025 market, and meaningful mortgage rate falls would be a big boost to consumer confidence and pockets, there is still caution over how next year may play out.
“Looking at our data and the UK’s underlying housing needs, there are lots of reasons to be positive about next year. However, as we’ve seen several times this year, the market is sensitive to unexpected events and the direction of travel can change.
« The stamp duty changes are a cloud over the market at the moment, with some groups much more impacted than others, and therefore keen to avoid the additional charges.
« A Bank Rate cut and some mortgage rate falls early on in the year would help to settle the market and provide a boost to sentiment and consumer confidence.”
Chief executive of the estate agent body Propertymark, Nathan Emerson, said: « Across the year we have witnessed the housing market show an incredible resilience with strong growth across the entire year overall.
« We have, however, seen many twists and turns, with the housing market duelling aspects such as high inflation, challenging interest rates, uncertainty surrounding the general election in July and the aftereffects on subjects such as Stamp Duty following the recent budget.
“Into 2025, we hope to see progress on a number of key subjects such as Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which will pave the way for the UK Government to kick start their ambitious plans of delivering 1.5 million new homes by 2029 and help level out the current mismatch between housing supply and demand.”
